Covid-19

On this page I will post information, thoughts and useful links on the Covid-19 outbreak. This is a great challenge for the world and at this stage the outcome is far from certain. What is also true is that the situation and knowledge changes by the hour

Corona Melbourne Modelling

Alex and Marc have modeled the increase in the exponent base of the growth model (R0) over the last 15 days. Our analysis is here At this time, the data suggest that changes in rules or behaviors in the period before the modelling were increasing the base – a very worrying trend. Hopefully lockdown will …

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The diagnostic test

The gold-standard test for Covid-19 is qRT-PCR. This stands for quantitative, reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. In essence this converts viral RNA to DNA and then amplifies the DNA for detection. There is much written about the shortage of “kits”. These are now available https://www.biovision.com/coronavirus-sars-cov-2-pcr-detection-kit.html Unique to a kit is the specific primers to identify …

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Developing a Vaccine

It is hoped that a vaccine can be developed for the virus quickly. That may not be so easy There are some early results suggesting that antibodies to the spike protein of the virus have some promise in protecting cells against infection. Translating this into a vaccine which is safe to administer to millions of …

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Testing Virus survival

There are a large number of claims about how the virus that causes covid-19 : the SARS-CoV-2 virus can or cannot survive under certain conditions For example, can it survive in the sun, on metal, in water etc Unlike testing for the presence of the virus – which is done with detection of viral RNA, …

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How Governments should Respond

Covid-19 will pose severe challenges to society in 2020. These will include Health services – these could easily get overwhelmed Workforce shortages – we will feel the lack of employees in some industries very acutely eg health, docks, truck drivers, people maintaining utilities etc Law and Order Economy – some sectors will be devastated – …

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Getting retired doctors back to work

One of the ideas to address a likely forthcoming workforce crisis is that of getting retired doctors back to work. The Victorian manifestation of this idea is not novel. Boris Johnson floated the same idea in the UK https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/10/government-fails-to-detail-how-retired-doctors-plan-will-work-for-coronavirus It is not a simple task. Maintaining medical registration has become more complex and costly in …

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Increasing Hospital Capacity

Australia has an opportunity to learn from what is happening in Italy as that is likely to be us in one month. One hopes that the Government and health departments understand the impact of the disease on hospitals Once the demand soars for hospital services, a number of things will need consideration. can we keep …

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